Political distrust and support for anti-establishment parties in hard times: panel and longitudinal evidence of the association between political distrust and voting for anti-establishment parties

Serani, Danilo

Political distrust and support for anti-establishment parties in hard times: panel and longitudinal evidence of the association between political distrust and voting for anti-establishment parties

Document Type

Doctoral thesis
Published Version

Author

Serani, Danilo

Director

Torcal, Mariano

Publication Date

2020-03-04

Pages

164 p.

Citation

Serani, D. Political distrust and support for anti-establishment parties in hard times: panel and longitudinal evidence of the association between political distrust and voting for anti-establishment parties. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; 2020. handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/668986

This citation was generated automatically.

Doctoral program

Programa de doctorat en Ciències Polítiques i Socials

Abstract

This thesis revolves around the relationship between distrust in the main actors of political representation (political parties and politicians) and voting for anti-establishment parties (AEP). While the research does not deny the argument according to which support for AEP largely depends on political distrust, it sheds new light on this association. First, the political attitude has not only a direct, but also a conditional effect on the voting behavior, especially when considering other factors like the economy. Second, supporting an AEP leads to a further political distrust. In other words, the political attitude and the voting behavior reinforce each other, by activating a ‘spiral of distrust’. These arguments are developed in three empirical chapters. In the first article, based on pooled surveys from the European Social Survey (2004-2016) and macroeconomic data gathered from the Eurostat, we performed a multilevel analysis to analyze the individual and contextual factors of the voting for AEP. In the second paper we analyze, with an original panel survey conducted in Spain between 2014 and 2016, the rise of Podemos and Ciudadanos at the 2015 elections. Instead, the third study, based on a comparative analysis of five panel studies, evaluates the impact of having voted for an AEP on the change in the levels of distrust.
Este trabajo de tesis se centra en la relación entre desconfianza en los principales actores de representación política (partidos políticos y su elite) y voto a los partidos anti-establishment (AEP). Mientras esta investigación no cuestiona el argumento según el cual el voto a los AEP se debe en gran medida a la desconfianza política, lo que sí hace es arrojar nueva luz acerca de esta asociación. En primer lugar, sostenemos que la desconfianza política no solo tiene un impacto directo, sino también condicional sobre el voto a los AEP, especialmente si consideramos otros factores (como por ejemplo la economía). En segundo lugar, el voto a los AEP lleva a una ulterior desconfianza política. En otras palabras, la actitud política y el comportamiento electoral se refuerzan recíprocamente, activando un mecanismo de ‘espiral de la desconfianza’. Esos argumentos serán desarrollados a lo largo de tres artículos empíricos. En el primer paper, basado en un análisis agregado de la Encuesta Social Europea (2004-2016) y de los datos macroeconómicos obtenidos por el Eurostat, realizaremos un análisis multinivel para analizar los factores individuales y contextuales que explican el voto a los AEP. En el segundo artículo analizaremos, con inéditos datos de panel recolectados en España entre 2014 y 2016, el origen de Podemos y Ciudadanos en las elecciones de España del 2015. Finalmente, el tercer estudio, basado en un análisis comparado de cinco estudios de panel, analiza el impacto de haber votado por un AEP sobre el cambio en los niveles de desconfianza.

Keywords

Anti-establishment parties, Political trust, Voting behaviour, Panel data analysis, Multilevel models, Partidos anti-establishment, Confianza política, Comportamiento electoral, Análisis de datos de panel, Modelos multinivel