• Borrower versus bank channels in lending: experimental- and administrative-based evidence

  Michelangeli, Valentina; Peydró, José-Luis; Sette, Enrico (2021-12)

  We identify the relative importance for bank lending of borrower (demand-side) versus bank (supply-side) factors. We submit thousands of fictitious mortgage applications, changing one borrower-level factor at time, to the ...
• Capital controls, corporate debt and real effects

  Fabiani, Andrea; López Piñeros, Martha; Peydró, José-Luis; Soto, Paul Eduardo (2021-09)

  Non-US firms have massively borrowed dollars (foreign currency, FX), which may lead to booms and crises. We show the real effects of capital controls, including prudential benefits, through a firm-debt mechanism. Our ...
• Monetary policy, labor income redistribution and the credit channel: evidence from matched employer-employee and credit registers

  Jasova, Martina; Mendicino, Caterina; Panetti, Ettore; Peydró, José-Luis; Supera, Dominik (2021-09-12)

  This paper documents the redistributive effects of monetary policy on labor market outcomes via the credit channel. For identification, we exploit matched administrative datasets in Portugal - employee-employer and credit ...
• Screening and loan origination time: lending standards, loan defaults and bank failures

  Bedayo, Mikel; Jiménez, Gabriel; Peydró, José-Luis; Vegas, Raquel (2021-12)

  We show that loan origination time is crucial for bank lending standards over the credit cycle, as well as for ex-post loan-level defaults and bank-level failures. We use the credit register in Spain for the business loans ...
• Pareto-improving optimal capital and labor taxes

  Greulich, Ana Katharina; Laczó, Sarolta; Marcet, Albert (2022-01)

  We study optimal Pareto-improving fiscal policy in a model where agents are heterogeneous in their labor productivity and wealth and markets are complete. We first argue that recent results that find positive optimal ...
• Media capture by banks

  Durante, Ruben, 1978-; Fabiani, Andrea; Laeven, Luc; Peydró, José-Luis (2021-12)

  Do media slant news in favor of the banks they borrow from? We study how lending connections affect news coverage of banks earnings reports and of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis on major European newspapers. We find ...
• Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy

  Fabiani, Andrea; López Piñeros, Martha; Peydró, José-Luis; Soto, Paul Eduardo (2021-08)

  We study how capital controls and domestic macroprudential policy tame credit supply booms, respectively targeting foreign and domestic bank debt. For identification, we exploit the simultaneous introduction of capital ...
• Global financial cycle, household credit, and macroprudential policies

  Epure, Mircea; Mihai, Irina; Minoiu, Camelia; Peydró, José-Luis (2021-09-04)

  We show that macroprudential policies dampen the impact of global financial conditions on local credit cycles. For identification, we exploit exogenous variation in the U.S. VIX and household and business credit registers ...
• Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?

  Andrade, Philippe; Galí, Jordi, 1961-; Le Bihan, Hervé; Matheron, Julien (2021-04-13)

  We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state ...
• Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy

  Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2020-03-21)

  As we write, the Covid-19 coronavirus is spreading throughout the globe. Besides its impact on public health, this coronavirus outbreak is likely to have significant economic consequences. The consensus is that the virus ...
• Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises

  Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2021-07)

  We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the international monetary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) run current account surpluses, ii) accumulate international reserves and receive net ...
• The dracula effect: voter information and trade policy

  Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Petrova, Maria; Enikolopov, Ruben (2020-10-07)

  Trade barriers cause substantial deadweight losses, yet they enjoy surprising voter support. We develop an electoral model that accounts for this puzzling popularity of protectionism. Producers have incentives to acquire ...
• Optimally vague contracts and the law

  Gennaioli, Nicola; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (2017-01)

  Many real-world contracts contain vague clauses despite the enforcement risk they entail. To study the causes and consequences of this phenomenon, we build a principal agent model in which contracts can include vague clauses ...
• Bilateral international investments: the big Sur?

  Broner, Fernando; Didier, Titiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Von Peter, Goetz (2021-09-16)

  Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance. The paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, ...
• The global financial resource curse

  Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2021-12)

  Since the late 1990s, the United States has received large capital flows from developing countries - a phenomenon known as the global saving glut - and experienced a productivity growth slowdown. Motivated by these facts, ...
• Evaluating forecast performance with state dependence

  Odendahl, Florens; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07-18)

  We propose a novel forecast evaluation methodology to assess models’ absolute and relative forecasting performance when it is a state-dependent function of economic variables. In our framework, the forecasting performance, ...
• A new approach to measuring economic policy shocks, with an application to conventional and unconventional monetary policy

  Inoue, Atsushi; Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-04)

  We propose a new approach to analyze economic shocks. Our new procedure identi es economic shocks as exogenous shifts in a function; hence, we call them "functional shocks". We show how to identify such shocks and how to ...
• Identifying and estimating the effects of unconventional monetary policy: how to do it and what have we learned?

  Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2020-07-31)

  The recent financial crisis led central banks to lower their interest rates in order to stimulate the economy until they hit the zero lower bound. How should one identify monetary policy shocks in unconventional times? ...
• Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: how do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them

  Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-07)

  This article provides guidance on how to evaluate and improve the forecasting ability of models in the presence of instabilities, which are widespread in economic time series. Empirically relevant examples include predicting ...
• Has the information channel of monetary policy disappeared? Revisiting the empirical evidence

  Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07)

  Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or ...

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