Green hydrogen: an analysis of its economic viability and its impact on the Spanish economy

Abstract

This research examines the future economic viability, degree of adoption and impact of green hydrogen technology. The study primarily analyzes the global cost reduction of green hydrogen production in the 2030 time horizon, and applies the findings in order to predict the degree of adoption of green hydrogen in Spain. This allows the prediction of the technology’s economic and decarbonisation impact in Spain, as well as an in-depth analysis of the key-success factors of green hydrogen applications. The methodology integrates an analysis of available literature as well as expert interviews that validate key assumptions. It employs models to estimate crucial variables such as the production cost of green hydrogen in 2030 or the total quantity of green hydrogen produced in Spain in the same time-horizon. It follows a top-down approach, some of the calculated variables being crucial for the findings of latter ones. The study suggests that the cost reductions of producing green hydrogen will be significant by 2030, but that in Spain its role will be substituting hydrogen produced through non-renewable sources, and it will still be far from unlocking its full potential in terms of impact and decarbonisation. However, more optimistic studied scenarios can be used to determine hydrogen adoption after our time-horizon.