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Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

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dc.contributor.author Podda, Mauro
dc.contributor.author Lelpo, Benedetto
dc.contributor.author MANCTRA-1 Collaborative Group
dc.date.accessioned 2024-05-21T06:26:57Z
dc.date.available 2024-05-21T06:26:57Z
dc.date.issued 2023
dc.identifier.citation Podda M, Pellino G, Di Saverio S, Coccolini F, Pacella D, Cioffi SPB, et al. Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study. Updates Surg. 2023 Apr;75(3):493-522. DOI: 10.1007/s13304-023-01488-6
dc.identifier.issn 2038-131X
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/60202
dc.description.abstract The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135–15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359–5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138–5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184–5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598–9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090–6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286–5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912–7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138–0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143–0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990).
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Springer
dc.relation.ispartof Updates Surg. 2023 Apr;75(3):493-522
dc.rights © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13304-023-01488-6
dc.subject.keyword Acute pancreatitis
dc.subject.keyword Infected pancreatic necrosis
dc.subject.keyword International study
dc.subject.keyword Mortality
dc.subject.keyword Organ failure
dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion


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