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Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

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dc.contributor.author Berenguer, Juan
dc.contributor.author Borobia, Alberto M.
dc.contributor.author Ryan, Pablo
dc.contributor.author Rodríguez Baño, Jesús
dc.contributor.author Bellón, José M.
dc.contributor.author Jarrín, Inmaculada
dc.contributor.author Carratalà, Jordi
dc.contributor.author Pachón, Jerónimo
dc.contributor.author Carcas, Antonio J.
dc.contributor.author Yllescas, María
dc.contributor.author Arribas, José Ramón
dc.date.accessioned 2022-09-28T07:15:47Z
dc.date.available 2022-09-28T07:15:47Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.citation Berenguer J, Borobia AM, Ryan P, Rodríguez-Baño J, Bellón JM, Jarrín I, et al. Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score. Thorax. 2021 Sep; 76(9): 920-9. DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001
dc.identifier.issn 0040-6376
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/54190
dc.description.abstract Objective: to develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms. Design: Multivariable prognostic prediction model. Setting: 127 Spanish hospitals. Participants: derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. Interventions: prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Main outcome measures: 30-day mortality. Results: patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%). Conclusions: a simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher BMJ Publishing Group
dc.rights Copyright © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
dc.title Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001
dc.subject.keyword Clinical epidemiology
dc.subject.keyword Critical care
dc.subject.keyword Emergency medicine
dc.subject.keyword Pneumonia
dc.subject.keyword Respiratory infection
dc.subject.keyword Viral infection
dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion


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