Terraforming Earth's ecosystems : engineering ecosystems to avoid anthropogenic tipping points

Abstract

The idea of Terraformation comes from the science fiction literature, where humans have the capability of changing a non-habitable planet to an Earth-like one. Nowadays, Nature is changing rapidly, the poles are melting, oceans biodiversity is vanishing due to plastic pollution, and the deserts are advancing at an unstoppable rhythm. This thesis is a first step towards the exploration of new strategies that could serve to change this pernicious tendencies jeopardising ecosystems. We suggest it may not only be possible by adding new species (alien species), but also engineering autochthonous microbial species that are already adapted to the environment. Such engineering may improve their functions and capabilities allowing them to recover the (host) ecosystem upon their re-introduction. These new functionalities should make the microbes be able to induce a bottom-up change in the ecosystem: from the micro-scale (microenvironment) to the macro-scale (even changing the composition of species in the entire the ecosystem). To make this possible, the so-called Terraformation strategy needs to fuse many different fields of knowledge. The focus of this thesis relies on studying the outcome of the interactions between species and their environment (Ecology), on making the desired modifications by means of genetic engineering of the wild-type species (Synthetic Biology), and on monitoring the evaluation of the current ecosystems’ states, testing the possible changes, and predicting the future development of possible interventions (Dynamical Systems). In order to do so, in this thesis, we have gathered the tools provided by these different fields of knowledge. The methodology is based on loops between observation, designing, and prediction. For example, if there is a lack of humidity in semiarid ecosystems, we then propose to engineer e.g. Nostoc sp. to enhace its capability to produce extracellular matrix (increasing water retention). With this framework, we perform a model to understand the different possible dynamics, by means of dynamical equations to evaluate e.g. when a synthetic strain will remain in the ecosystem and the effects it will produce. We have also studied spatial models to predict their ability to modify the spatial organization of vegetation. Transient dynamics depend on the kind of transition underlying the occurring tipping point. For this reason, we have studied different systems: vegetation dynamics with facilitation (typical from drylands), a cooperator-parasite system, and a trophic chain model where different human interventions can be tested (i.e. hunting, deforestation, soil degradation, habitat destruction). All of these systems are shown to promote different types of transitions (i.e. smooth and catastrophic transitions). Each transition has its own dynamical fingerprint and thus knowing them can help monitoring and anticipating these transitions even before they happen, taking advantage of the so-called early warning signals. In this travel, we have found that transients can be an important phenomena in the current changing world. The ecosystems that we observe can be trapped into a seemingly stable regime, but be indeed in an unstable situation driving to a future sudden collapse (Fig 1) For this reason, we need to investigate novel intervention methods able to sustain the current ecosystems, for instance: Terraformation.