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Browsing Working Papers CREI (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) by Title

Browsing Working Papers CREI (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) by Title

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  • Inoue, Atsushi; Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-04)
    We propose a new approach to analyze economic shocks. Our new procedure identi es economic shocks as exogenous shifts in a function; hence, we call them "functional shocks". We show how to identify such shocks and how to ...
  • Fornaro, Luca (2021-04)
    Since the creation of the euro, capital flows among member countries have been large and volatile. Motivated by this fact, I provide a theory connecting the exchange rate regime to financial integration. The key feature ...
  • Martin, Alberto; Mayordomo, Sergio; Vanasco, Victoria (2023-12-11)
    Governments often support private credit with guarantee schemes, compensating lenders for borrower defaults. Such schemes often rely on banks to allocate guarantees among borrowers, but how banks do so is not well understood. ...
  • Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Von Peter, Goetz (2023-06)
    This paper presents novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance using country-to-country data. To do so, the paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, ...
  • Santamaría, Marta (Santamaría Monturiol); Ventura, Jaume; Yeşilbayraktar, Uğur (2024-02-23)
    Are country borders still an impediment to trade flows within Europe? Using a microlevel survey with 3 million annual shipments of goods, we construct a matrix of bilateral trade for 269 European regions. Take two similar ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2020-03-21)
    As we write, the Covid-19 coronavirus is spreading throughout the globe. Besides its impact on public health, this coronavirus outbreak is likely to have significant economic consequences. The consensus is that the virus ...
  • Boffa, Federico; Mollisi, Vincenzo; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (2023-03)
    Poor performance by the established political class can drive voters towards antiestablishment outsiders. Is the ineffectiveness of incumbent politicians an important driver of the recent rise of populist parties? We provide ...
  • Ghassibe, Mishel (2023-12)
    I develop a tractable dynamic sticky-price model, where input-output linkages are formed endogenously. The model delivers cyclical properties of networks that are consistent with those I estimate using sectoral and firm-level ...
  • Odendahl, Florens; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07-18)
    We propose a novel forecast evaluation methodology to assess models’ absolute and relative forecasting performance when it is a state-dependent function of economic variables. In our framework, the forecasting performance, ...
  • Santamaría, Marta (Santamaría Monturiol); Ventura, Jaume; Yeşilbayraktar, Uğur (2023-02-06)
    We use the new dataset of trade flows across 269 European regions in 24 countries constructed in Santamaría et al. (2020) to systematically explore for the first time trade patterns within and across country borders. We ...
  • Broner, Fernando; Clancy, Daragh; Erce, Aitor; Martin, Alberto (2021-04)
    This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-07)
    This article provides guidance on how to evaluate and improve the forecasting ability of models in the presence of instabilities, which are widespread in economic time series. Empirically relevant examples include predicting ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Grosse-Steffen, Christoph (2024-06)
    We provide a theory of financial fragmentation in monetary unions. Our key insight is that currency unions may experience endogenous breakings of symmetry: that is episodes in which identical countries react differently ...
  • Gancia, Gino A.; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Ventura, Jaume (2021-06)
    This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the interaction between globalization and political structure. We show that political structure adapts in a non-monotonic way to declining transport costs. Borders hamper ...
  • Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07)
    Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or ...
  • Debortoli, Davide; Galí, Jordi, 1961- (2024-03)
    We analyze the merits and limitations of simple tractable New Keynesian models (RANK and TANK) in accounting for the aggregate predictions of Heterogenous Agent New Keynesian models (HANK). By means of comparison of a ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2020-07-31)
    The recent financial crisis led central banks to lower their interest rates in order to stimulate the economy until they hit the zero lower bound. How should one identify monetary policy shocks in unconventional times? ...
  • Debortoli, Davide; Galí, Jordi, 1961- (2023-07)
    We study the role of idiosyncratic income risk for aggregate fluctuations within a simple heterogeneous households framework. We show that the presence of idiosyncratic income shocks affects the economy’s response to an ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Romei, Federica (2023-06)
    We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable ones. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production ...

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