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Browsing Working Papers CREI (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) by Title

Browsing Working Papers CREI (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) by Title

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  • Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Von Peter, Goetz (2023-06)
    This paper presents novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance using country-to-country data. To do so, the paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, ...
  • Santamaría, Marta (Santamaría Monturiol); Ventura, Jaume; Yeşilbayraktar, Uğur (2023-02)
    Are country borders still an impediment to trade flows within Europe? Using a microlevel survey with 3 million annual shipments of goods, we construct a matrix of bilateral trade for 269 European regions. Take two similar ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2020-03-21)
    As we write, the Covid-19 coronavirus is spreading throughout the globe. Besides its impact on public health, this coronavirus outbreak is likely to have significant economic consequences. The consensus is that the virus ...
  • Boffa, Federico; Mollisi, Vincenzo; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (2023-03)
    Poor performance by the established political class can drive voters towards antiestablishment outsiders. Is the ineffectiveness of incumbent politicians an important driver of the recent rise of populist parties? We provide ...
  • Odendahl, Florens; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07-18)
    We propose a novel forecast evaluation methodology to assess models’ absolute and relative forecasting performance when it is a state-dependent function of economic variables. In our framework, the forecasting performance, ...
  • Santamaría, Marta (Santamaría Monturiol); Ventura, Jaume; Yeşilbayraktar, Uğur (2023-02-06)
    We use the new dataset of trade flows across 269 European regions in 24 countries constructed in Santamaría et al. (2020) to systematically explore for the first time trade patterns within and across country borders. We ...
  • Broner, Fernando; Clancy, Daragh; Erce, Aitor; Martin, Alberto (2021-04)
    This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-07)
    This article provides guidance on how to evaluate and improve the forecasting ability of models in the presence of instabilities, which are widespread in economic time series. Empirically relevant examples include predicting ...
  • Gancia, Gino A.; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Ventura, Jaume (2021-06)
    This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the interaction between globalization and political structure. We show that political structure adapts in a non-monotonic way to declining transport costs. Borders hamper ...
  • Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07)
    Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2020-07-31)
    The recent financial crisis led central banks to lower their interest rates in order to stimulate the economy until they hit the zero lower bound. How should one identify monetary policy shocks in unconventional times? ...
  • Debortoli, Davide; Galí, Jordi, 1961- (2023-07)
    We study the role of idiosyncratic income risk for aggregate fluctuations within a simple heterogeneous households framework. We show that the presence of idiosyncratic income shocks affects the economy’s response to an ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Romei, Federica (2023-06)
    We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable ones. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2022-09)
    We provide a framework in which monetary policy affects firms’ automation decisions (i.e. how intensively capital and labor are used in production). This new feature has far-reaching consequences for monetary policy. ...
  • Hauk, Esther; Lanteri, Andrea; Marcet, Albert (2019-11)
    We study optimal policy when the planner has partial information in a general setup where observed signals are endogenous to policy. In this context, signal extraction and policy have to be determined jointly. We derive a ...
  • Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Schaal, Edouard (2019-12)
    We study optimal transport networks in spatial equilibrium. We develop a framework consisting of a neoclassical trade model with labor mobility in which locations are arranged on a graph. Goods must be shipped through ...
  • Gennaioli, Nicola; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (2017-01)
    Many real-world contracts contain vague clauses despite the enforcement risk they entail. To study the causes and consequences of this phenomenon, we build a principal agent model in which contracts can include vague clauses ...
  • Greulich, Anna Katharina; Laczó, Sarolta; Marcet, Albert (2022-08)
    We study optimal Pareto-improving factor taxation when agents are heterogeneous in their labor productivity and wealth and markets are complete. Pareto-improving policies require a gradual reform: labor taxes should be ...
  • Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Gaubert, Cecile; Gorton, Nicole; Morales, Eduardo; Schaal, Edouard (2023-06-29)
    How do political preferences shape transportation policy? We study this question in the context of California’s High-Speed Rail (CHSR). Combining geographic data on votes in a referendum on the CHSR with a model of its ...
  • Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2022-03)
    We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the international monetary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) run current account surpluses, ii) accumulate international reserves and receive net ...

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