Experiencing simulated outcomes

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Hogarth, Robin; Soyer, Emre. Experiencing simulated outcomes. 2010
http://hdl.handle.net/10230/6347
To cite or link this document: http://hdl.handle.net/10230/6347
dc.contributor.author Hogarth, Robin
dc.contributor.author Soyer, Emre
dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
dc.date.issued 2010-06-01
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/6347
dc.description.abstract Whereas much literature has documented difficulties in making probabilistic inferences, it has also emphasized the importance of task characteristics in determining judgmental accuracy. Noting that people exhibit remarkable efficiency in encoding frequency information sequentially, we construct tasks that exploit this ability by requiring people to experience the outcomes of sequentially simulated data. We report two experiments. The first involved seven well-known probabilistic inference tasks. Participants differed in statistical sophistication and answered with and without experience obtained through sequentially simulated outcomes in a design that permitted both between- and within-subject analyses. The second experiment involved interpreting the outcomes of a regression analysis when making inferences for investment decisions. In both experiments, even the statistically naïve make accurate probabilistic inferences after experiencing sequentially simulated outcomes and many prefer this presentation format. We conclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications.
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 1224
dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.title Experiencing simulated outcomes
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
dc.date.modified 2014-06-03T07:14:26Z
dc.subject.keyword Behavioral and Experimental Economics
dc.subject.keyword probabilistic reasoning; natural frequencies; experiential sampling; simulation.
dc.subject.keyword leex
dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess


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